Dwarkesh Patel: Anthropic reportedly expects AI to match human AI researchers in nine months
Dwarkesh Patel said on the Tyler Cowen podcast that an Anthropic employee told him two days ago the lab expects AI to match humans at AI research within nine months, based on internal evidence it can't share. Nathan Calvin says if such compelling evidence exists, Anthropic has an obligation to publish it, and asks whether the estimate assumes no slowdown for safety or security reasons.
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- If Anthropic does have compelling internal evidence of this fact (i'm not sure they do - it might just be extrapolating from public stuff + some strong internal models + vibes), then I agree with Dwarkesh they have a tremendous obligation to share that information publicly as soon as possible. Also is this estimate assuming that they or competitors won't be forced slow down ~at all for safety/security reasons in that period of time?Dwarkesh Patel reveals an Anthropic employee told him two days ago they expect AIs to match humans at AI research within nine months based on inside information they can’t share, and says labs should make that evidence public “I think there’s a very frustrating element to the current situation right now, where people inside the AI labs claim to have evidence that makes them more worried. And they are not allowed to talk about it. And this makes it a very difficult situation on the outside to evaluate how worried we should be." "So for example, just the other day, maybe two days ago, I was talking to somebody at Anthropic and they were like, look, I expect AIs to be humans at AI research within nine months." "And I’m like, why do you believe that? Well, they’re like, it’s not just vibes, but I have information on the inside. Like, what is it? Is it a new model? Is it some evaluation you ran? It’s like, I can’t talk about it." "I think it’s a terrible state of affairs. If they really believe this, if they think that we’re in a situation where we’re less than a year away from automating AI research and radically speeding it up, they should make this evidence public.” open on X7 likes · 1 reposts
- Dwarkesh told Tyler Cowen on the NYT podcast that Anthropic believes Claude will surpasses human researchers within nine months. I said it would be by the summer, so I'm feeling good about my prediction.
101 likes · 6 reposts - 2 likes · 0 reposts
- Two days ago:
@andrewcurran_: Significant update from Jack Clark this morning. His RSI timelines have moved up. He now says it is likely that full RSI will become possible in 2027, and that creativity was the last piece. I think we are less than six months away from closing the loop. open on X8 likes · 0 reposts - Dwarkesh: 20% of people in the Bay area have AI psychosis.
3 likes · 0 reposts - Contra "I said it would be by the summer, so I'm feeling good about my prediction." I feel extremely bad about this prediction. It is bad that the AI companies are aiming to do a thing that will likely kill everybody in 2027-2028. I hope my predictions are wrong.@andrewcurran_: Dwarkesh told Tyler Cowen on the NYT podcast that Anthropic believes Claude will surpasses human researchers within nine months. I said it would be by the summer, so I'm feeling good about my prediction. open on X3 likes · 0 reposts
- Well, well.
1 likes · 0 reposts - Well, there's also Mr Clark:@andrewcurran_: Significant update from Jack Clark this morning. His RSI timelines have moved up. He now says it is likely that full RSI will become possible in 2027, and that creativity was the last piece. I think we are less than six months away from closing the loop. open on X0 likes · 0 reposts
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